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In the world of capital markets, clarity is often fleeting — and today, it feels downright elusive. The Federal Reserve’s latest June dot plot offered little in the way of certainty. While the median projection sees the Federal Funds Rate in the mid-3% range by the end of 2026 , the dispersion among voting members is striking. Seven members predict no rate cuts in 2024 , reflecting just how divided the committee remains in the face of conflicting data. This latest update marks a 25-50 basis point shift downward from May , but the overarching theme is one of caution, not conviction. That sentiment is mirrored in the economic projections. Core PCE inflation , the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is now expected to end 2025 at 3.0% , 30 basis points higher than earlier forecasts. Meanwhile, real GDP is forecast to slow from 2.3% in Q4 2024 to just 1.7% in 2025 — another sign that the lagged effects of monetary policy are expected to begin to show. At the same time, the Fed’s balance sheet has shrunk dramatically, from a peak of $9 trillion in April 2022 to just $2.3 trillion today . That quantitative tightening, coupled with a lack of consistent inflation suppression, leaves both equity and bond markets vulnerable to further volatility. This all feeds into an uncomfortable truth: rates are likely to remain higher for longer , and the market is struggling to price that reality. The VIX index , a 30-day forward-looking gauge of volatility in equities, is trending higher. When volatility rises even as indices fall, credit spreads widen , liquidity tightens, and financing risk surges. For commercial real estate investors , this has enormous implications. As we explored in our recent article on CRE Price Discovery , the market remains in flux. The bid-ask spread in real estate is still somewhat wide, and most transaction activity today is being driven by maturing debt — not opportunistic investments banking on future growth. This means valuations are being forced downward, especially for assets that were purchased or refinanced at ultra-low rates in 2021–2022. Consumer behavior is also in transition. Household formation is slowing, and personal savings rates are slowly ticking up although they are significantly down from longer term averages – which could reflect folks bracing for economic turbulence. U.S. household formation currently stands at 1.058 million, down 7.68% from last month’s 1.146 million and down 47.73% from 2.024 million a year ago. Looking globally, demand for U.S. Treasuries remains a critical economic indicator that has trickling effects on the economy . A strong bid-to-cover ratio — like the 2.67x seen at the June 11th 10-Year Treasury auction , with nearly 88% of bids from foreign banks — is encouraging. It suggests continued faith in U.S. fiscal credibility and currency strength despite market apprehensions in our strength, such as the US credit rating being downgraded by Moody’s. This equilibrium is rather fragile. Should the U.S. continue to run massive budget deficits with a debt-to-GDP ratio north of 120% , investors may begin to demand higher yields — or worse, seek refuge in alternative stores of value. Gold is one such store. The World Gold Council recently reported that 76% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings over the next five years , up from 69% in 2023. This flight to real assets reflects growing concern about the long-term value of fiat currencies — and a desire to hedge against systemic risk. The Bottom Line Rates are likely to remain high through 2025 and into 2026 Inflation remains persistent but progress has been unclear Growth is slowing, and volatility is rising Real estate is repricing around debt maturity events Global capital is shifting cautiously, looking for safety At Alpha Equity Group, we believe this is a time for discipline, not risk-taking. We’re staying patient, watching the data, and investing defensively — focusing on secured debt positions and capital preservation. While others chase uncertain upside, we’re building long-term value through downside protection while we wait out the convergence of dozens of factors completely outside our control.
When markets break from fundamentals, the prudent real estate investor doesn’t chase noise — they reposition around truth. And the truth is this: we are entering a prolonged period of macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility . The world is realigning, and capital is responding accordingly. Global central banks are moving away from the U.S. dollar. According to the World Gold Council, 76% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves — a jump from 69% last year — citing crisis protection, inflation hedging, and diversification as key drivers. This reflects a growing caution around U.S. fiscal policy , rising deficits , and ballooning national debt , now over 120% of GDP . Meanwhile, money market fund balances are climbing — a signal that institutional and retail investors alike are parking cash on the sidelines. These short-term investment vehicles offer safety and a yield that closely tracks the Fed Funds Rate. In other words, investors would rather earn 5% in cash than take risk in longer-duration assets, treasuries, or swinging equities. These trends are further complicated by geopolitical uncertainty. Ongoing wars, potential tariff escalations , and questions around U.S. fiscal leadership all introduce headline risk. Should unemployment rise , or growth falter , the Fed may face pressure to intervene — but its tools are limited. Cutting rates could re-ignite inflation. Raising taxes or cutting spending is politically unpopular. The Fed is cornered, managing debt service costs, inflation expectations, and political realities simultaneously. For CRE investors, this creates both risk and opportunity. Real estate pricing is driven by capital flows, leverage, and the cost of debt . When long-term Treasury rates rise , the “risk-free rate” increases — and with it, lenders widen their spreads to reflect perceived risk. Even when treasuries fall, spreads going higher can keep all-in interest rates higher. Spreads are higher for construction loans, transitional assets, and tertiary market, reflecting in lower asset prices. The net effect is simple: lower loan proceeds and higher cost of capital . As a result, buyers must lower offers to meet equity return thresholds . We are already seeing this play out in real time. In markets where price discovery is finally happening , bids are falling, and assets are being marked to market — especially those with near-term debt maturities. Until this repricing completes and stability returns, we believe it is wise to lean into debt rather than chase speculative equity returns. Debt Offers Strategic Advantages Right Now: Senior positioning in the capital stack offers downside protection Current yields are attractive , often exceeding return thresholds without relying on appreciation Shorter durations allow us to stay nimble as the market evolves And we can structure loans with sponsor-friendly terms , aligning ourselves with developers who need flexible capital during this transition period At Alpha Equity Group, we’re also putting our own capital to work on the equity side of the deals we know best — infill residential development. But we are doing so carefully, underwriting with stress-tested assumptions, and leaning on our operational expertise. As we’ve seen in prior cycles, market dislocation creates fertile ground for investors . With uncertainty around every corner, we see this moment not as a challenge, but as an opening — a window to preserve capital, generate yield, and position for long-term outperformance once growth does come back. What to Watch: The yield curve : steepening curves may signal higher inflation and longer-term rate risk U.S. bond auctions : demand strength, especially from foreign investors, impacts long-term borrowing rates. The US is expected to start buying treasuries and bonds again in 2026, increasing its balance sheet again after rounds of tightening alongside the recent rate hike cycle. Credit spreads : widening spreads reflect rising risk aversion and lender caution Geopolitical escalation : new conflicts or trade wars can drive capital away from U.S. assets and toward gold or other alternatives Fiscal response : keep an eye on Trump-era tax reform 2.0, tariffs, or large-scale spending plans heading into the election cycle. This can affect bets on future inflation, bonds, capital availability, and CRE prices. In short, we are in a time of reordering — politically, economically, and monetarily. Investors who embrace this shift and position accordingly will be well-rewarded. We’re not just investing in the market we have — we’re preparing for the one that’s coming. That’s why we’re taking a conservative credit-first approach , with upside optionality where it makes sense, and defense where it matters most.
Multifamily Housing and Risk-Adjusted Returns
Capital Markets
In the world of capital markets, clarity is often fleeting — and today, it feels downright elusive. The Federal Reserve’s latest June dot plot offered little in the way of certainty. While the median projection sees the Federal Funds Rate in the mid-3% range by the end of 2026 , the dispersion among voting members is striking. Seven members predict no rate cuts in 2024 , reflecting just how divided the committee remains in the face of conflicting data. This latest update marks a 25-50 basis point shift downward from May , but the overarching theme is one of caution, not conviction. That sentiment is mirrored in the economic projections. Core PCE inflation , the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is now expected to end 2025 at 3.0% , 30 basis points higher than earlier forecasts. Meanwhile, real GDP is forecast to slow from 2.3% in Q4 2024 to just 1.7% in 2025 — another sign that the lagged effects of monetary policy are expected to begin to show. At the same time, the Fed’s balance sheet has shrunk dramatically, from a peak of $9 trillion in April 2022 to just $2.3 trillion today . That quantitative tightening, coupled with a lack of consistent inflation suppression, leaves both equity and bond markets vulnerable to further volatility. This all feeds into an uncomfortable truth: rates are likely to remain higher for longer , and the market is struggling to price that reality. The VIX index , a 30-day forward-looking gauge of volatility in equities, is trending higher. When volatility rises even as indices fall, credit spreads widen , liquidity tightens, and financing risk surges. For commercial real estate investors , this has enormous implications. As we explored in our recent article on CRE Price Discovery , the market remains in flux. The bid-ask spread in real estate is still somewhat wide, and most transaction activity today is being driven by maturing debt — not opportunistic investments banking on future growth. This means valuations are being forced downward, especially for assets that were purchased or refinanced at ultra-low rates in 2021–2022. Consumer behavior is also in transition. Household formation is slowing, and personal savings rates are slowly ticking up although they are significantly down from longer term averages – which could reflect folks bracing for economic turbulence. U.S. household formation currently stands at 1.058 million, down 7.68% from last month’s 1.146 million and down 47.73% from 2.024 million a year ago. Looking globally, demand for U.S. Treasuries remains a critical economic indicator that has trickling effects on the economy . A strong bid-to-cover ratio — like the 2.67x seen at the June 11th 10-Year Treasury auction , with nearly 88% of bids from foreign banks — is encouraging. It suggests continued faith in U.S. fiscal credibility and currency strength despite market apprehensions in our strength, such as the US credit rating being downgraded by Moody’s. This equilibrium is rather fragile. Should the U.S. continue to run massive budget deficits with a debt-to-GDP ratio north of 120% , investors may begin to demand higher yields — or worse, seek refuge in alternative stores of value. Gold is one such store. The World Gold Council recently reported that 76% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings over the next five years , up from 69% in 2023. This flight to real assets reflects growing concern about the long-term value of fiat currencies — and a desire to hedge against systemic risk. The Bottom Line Rates are likely to remain high through 2025 and into 2026 Inflation remains persistent but progress has been unclear Growth is slowing, and volatility is rising Real estate is repricing around debt maturity events Global capital is shifting cautiously, looking for safety At Alpha Equity Group, we believe this is a time for discipline, not risk-taking. We’re staying patient, watching the data, and investing defensively — focusing on secured debt positions and capital preservation. While others chase uncertain upside, we’re building long-term value through downside protection while we wait out the convergence of dozens of factors completely outside our control.
When markets break from fundamentals, the prudent real estate investor doesn’t chase noise — they reposition around truth. And the truth is this: we are entering a prolonged period of macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility . The world is realigning, and capital is responding accordingly. Global central banks are moving away from the U.S. dollar. According to the World Gold Council, 76% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves — a jump from 69% last year — citing crisis protection, inflation hedging, and diversification as key drivers. This reflects a growing caution around U.S. fiscal policy , rising deficits , and ballooning national debt , now over 120% of GDP . Meanwhile, money market fund balances are climbing — a signal that institutional and retail investors alike are parking cash on the sidelines. These short-term investment vehicles offer safety and a yield that closely tracks the Fed Funds Rate. In other words, investors would rather earn 5% in cash than take risk in longer-duration assets, treasuries, or swinging equities. These trends are further complicated by geopolitical uncertainty. Ongoing wars, potential tariff escalations , and questions around U.S. fiscal leadership all introduce headline risk. Should unemployment rise , or growth falter , the Fed may face pressure to intervene — but its tools are limited. Cutting rates could re-ignite inflation. Raising taxes or cutting spending is politically unpopular. The Fed is cornered, managing debt service costs, inflation expectations, and political realities simultaneously. For CRE investors, this creates both risk and opportunity. Real estate pricing is driven by capital flows, leverage, and the cost of debt . When long-term Treasury rates rise , the “risk-free rate” increases — and with it, lenders widen their spreads to reflect perceived risk. Even when treasuries fall, spreads going higher can keep all-in interest rates higher. Spreads are higher for construction loans, transitional assets, and tertiary market, reflecting in lower asset prices. The net effect is simple: lower loan proceeds and higher cost of capital . As a result, buyers must lower offers to meet equity return thresholds . We are already seeing this play out in real time. In markets where price discovery is finally happening , bids are falling, and assets are being marked to market — especially those with near-term debt maturities. Until this repricing completes and stability returns, we believe it is wise to lean into debt rather than chase speculative equity returns. Debt Offers Strategic Advantages Right Now: Senior positioning in the capital stack offers downside protection Current yields are attractive , often exceeding return thresholds without relying on appreciation Shorter durations allow us to stay nimble as the market evolves And we can structure loans with sponsor-friendly terms , aligning ourselves with developers who need flexible capital during this transition period At Alpha Equity Group, we’re also putting our own capital to work on the equity side of the deals we know best — infill residential development. But we are doing so carefully, underwriting with stress-tested assumptions, and leaning on our operational expertise. As we’ve seen in prior cycles, market dislocation creates fertile ground for investors . With uncertainty around every corner, we see this moment not as a challenge, but as an opening — a window to preserve capital, generate yield, and position for long-term outperformance once growth does come back. What to Watch: The yield curve : steepening curves may signal higher inflation and longer-term rate risk U.S. bond auctions : demand strength, especially from foreign investors, impacts long-term borrowing rates. The US is expected to start buying treasuries and bonds again in 2026, increasing its balance sheet again after rounds of tightening alongside the recent rate hike cycle. Credit spreads : widening spreads reflect rising risk aversion and lender caution Geopolitical escalation : new conflicts or trade wars can drive capital away from U.S. assets and toward gold or other alternatives Fiscal response : keep an eye on Trump-era tax reform 2.0, tariffs, or large-scale spending plans heading into the election cycle. This can affect bets on future inflation, bonds, capital availability, and CRE prices. In short, we are in a time of reordering — politically, economically, and monetarily. Investors who embrace this shift and position accordingly will be well-rewarded. We’re not just investing in the market we have — we’re preparing for the one that’s coming. That’s why we’re taking a conservative credit-first approach , with upside optionality where it makes sense, and defense where it matters most.
Multifamily Housing and Risk-Adjusted Returns
Real Estate Investing 101
The fundamental need for housing is universal—everyone requires a roof over their head. In the United States, however, we are facing a significant shortage of housing. According to the National Multifamily Housing Council, an additional 4.3 million units will be needed by 2035 to meet growing demand. Much of this demand is driven by migration to expanding lower cost cities and away from high tax, high cost metros, a trend accelerated by the widespread adoption of remote work during the pandemic. This trend has reshaped the housing landscape, creating a compelling opportunity for investors. While there are numerous investment strategies available, each with its own set of risks, residential real estate stands out. Over the past three decades, multifamily rentals have consistently delivered the highest risk-adjusted returns in commercial real estate. Why? Because housing is an essential need, regardless of economic conditions. At AEG, we are strategically developing both for-sale and rental housing, allowing us to adapt our approach to changing market dynamics and maximize returns while mitigating risk. Here’s why we are confident in the strength of residential housing as an investment: Land is Finite: Unlike many other asset classes, land cannot be created or expanded. The supply is fixed, and the demand for housing continues to grow. In the foreseeable future, virtual spaces like the metaverse will not replace the fundamental human need for physical shelter. Residential Housing is Non-Discretionary, and It's Supported by Government Liquidity: Housing is the only non-discretionary asset class. If it weren’t, we would see similar government support for other sectors like retail, office, or industrial real estate, but we don't. The federal government provides liquidity to the multifamily housing market because it is a fundamental need. This support drives down the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), making housing assets attractive to investors. This consistent access to capital compresses cap rates, creating a floor on the market (to an extent), fueling long-term growth and demand from investors big and small. Rents Tract with Inflation, and It is Rare to See Negative National Rent Growth: Rents reset every year as cost increases are passed off to tenants via annual lease contract resets. Since the beginning of recorded history, national rents have only gone negative year over year three times: the Spanish flu of 1918, the Great Financial Crisis, and during the Covid-19 pandemic. While yearly gains in rental cashflow streams will not make you wealthy, they are without a doubt very stable cashflows, historically speaking. There is no similar liquidity for for-sale housing, but its non-discretionary nature still gives it a strong investment profile. In growth markets like South Carolina's tertiary cities, the influx of new residents is fueling demand across all price points, further strengthening the residential sector. We believe in our residential investment thesis for both macro and local fundamental reasons. If interest rates remain high, new construction will slow even further. Meanwhile, homes in desirable locations will remain in high demand as many homeowners—especially those with low-rate mortgages—are unlikely to sell. According to the latest third-quarter data from the FHFA, 73.3% of U.S. mortgage borrowers now have an interest rate below 5.0%, a decline of 12.2 percentage points since Q1 2022. This significant shift in mortgage rates creates a unique dynamic: many homeowners are effectively "locked in" to their current homes, preventing them from moving and creating a looser supply in the for-sale market. As a result, home prices are expected to remain elevated in high-demand areas. While values may remain relatively flat in real terms over the next few years, on a nominal basis, they are expected to rise, particularly in growing markets. If interest rates decrease or economic growth drives up rental demand, build-for-rent communities could become more viable. However, they are not yet penciling out as attractive investments because growth has stalled - but, that is about to reverse. Thanks to our strategy and access to land—often without burdening our balance sheet or stretching our resources—we are able to remain nimble and pivot towards the most attractive risk-adjusted yields. As we navigate an uncertain economic environment, several factors support the ongoing strength of the residential housing market: slow housing starts, higher interest rates, and a large percentage of homeowners sitting on mortgages with sub-4% rates. These dynamics, along with strong demand in high-growth areas, reinforce our belief that residential real estate will remain a compelling investment in the years to come. At AEG, our focus is on developing attainable, high-quality housing, from custom spec homes, to mini-farm tracts, to higher density townhome projects. This flexibility allows us to serve a wide range of income levels and tailor our strategy to market conditions. With a commitment to quality finishes and high end products, we appeal to buyers regardless of economic conditions, providing us with a tighter, more predictable cash conversion and days on market cycle, unlike some of our competitors. By seeking out individually parceled deals, we reduce overall risk and remain agile in our decision-making.
Valuations & Investment Psychology
What is Negative Leverage?
Market Monitor
Multifamily Housing and Risk-Adjusted Returns
Lennar Files for Public Land-Banking REIT Subsidiary
With national multifamily deliveries hitting 50 year highs , many operators and developers are questioning whether or not current and future values are defensible due to operational and capital market headwinds in the current environment. Rising supply and demand imbalances pose a a threat to revenues, collections, and occupancy levels. Many growth markets are experiencing 20-year high supply deliveries which will temporarily soften tenant absorption and therefore revenue + property values. High supply and a weaker consumer will drive lower occupancy, rents, and higher concessions until the new supply is absorbed. Once it is, we should be trending back to a normalized annual rent growth environment on average, in positive net migration markets.
Advanced Investing Topics
In the world of capital markets, clarity is often fleeting — and today, it feels downright elusive. The Federal Reserve’s latest June dot plot offered little in the way of certainty. While the median projection sees the Federal Funds Rate in the mid-3% range by the end of 2026 , the dispersion among voting members is striking. Seven members predict no rate cuts in 2024 , reflecting just how divided the committee remains in the face of conflicting data. This latest update marks a 25-50 basis point shift downward from May , but the overarching theme is one of caution, not conviction. That sentiment is mirrored in the economic projections. Core PCE inflation , the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is now expected to end 2025 at 3.0% , 30 basis points higher than earlier forecasts. Meanwhile, real GDP is forecast to slow from 2.3% in Q4 2024 to just 1.7% in 2025 — another sign that the lagged effects of monetary policy are expected to begin to show. At the same time, the Fed’s balance sheet has shrunk dramatically, from a peak of $9 trillion in April 2022 to just $2.3 trillion today . That quantitative tightening, coupled with a lack of consistent inflation suppression, leaves both equity and bond markets vulnerable to further volatility. This all feeds into an uncomfortable truth: rates are likely to remain higher for longer , and the market is struggling to price that reality. The VIX index , a 30-day forward-looking gauge of volatility in equities, is trending higher. When volatility rises even as indices fall, credit spreads widen , liquidity tightens, and financing risk surges. For commercial real estate investors , this has enormous implications. As we explored in our recent article on CRE Price Discovery , the market remains in flux. The bid-ask spread in real estate is still somewhat wide, and most transaction activity today is being driven by maturing debt — not opportunistic investments banking on future growth. This means valuations are being forced downward, especially for assets that were purchased or refinanced at ultra-low rates in 2021–2022. Consumer behavior is also in transition. Household formation is slowing, and personal savings rates are slowly ticking up although they are significantly down from longer term averages – which could reflect folks bracing for economic turbulence. U.S. household formation currently stands at 1.058 million, down 7.68% from last month’s 1.146 million and down 47.73% from 2.024 million a year ago. Looking globally, demand for U.S. Treasuries remains a critical economic indicator that has trickling effects on the economy . A strong bid-to-cover ratio — like the 2.67x seen at the June 11th 10-Year Treasury auction , with nearly 88% of bids from foreign banks — is encouraging. It suggests continued faith in U.S. fiscal credibility and currency strength despite market apprehensions in our strength, such as the US credit rating being downgraded by Moody’s. This equilibrium is rather fragile. Should the U.S. continue to run massive budget deficits with a debt-to-GDP ratio north of 120% , investors may begin to demand higher yields — or worse, seek refuge in alternative stores of value. Gold is one such store. The World Gold Council recently reported that 76% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings over the next five years , up from 69% in 2023. This flight to real assets reflects growing concern about the long-term value of fiat currencies — and a desire to hedge against systemic risk. The Bottom Line Rates are likely to remain high through 2025 and into 2026 Inflation remains persistent but progress has been unclear Growth is slowing, and volatility is rising Real estate is repricing around debt maturity events Global capital is shifting cautiously, looking for safety At Alpha Equity Group, we believe this is a time for discipline, not risk-taking. We’re staying patient, watching the data, and investing defensively — focusing on secured debt positions and capital preservation. While others chase uncertain upside, we’re building long-term value through downside protection while we wait out the convergence of dozens of factors completely outside our control.
When markets break from fundamentals, the prudent real estate investor doesn’t chase noise — they reposition around truth. And the truth is this: we are entering a prolonged period of macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility . The world is realigning, and capital is responding accordingly. Global central banks are moving away from the U.S. dollar. According to the World Gold Council, 76% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves — a jump from 69% last year — citing crisis protection, inflation hedging, and diversification as key drivers. This reflects a growing caution around U.S. fiscal policy , rising deficits , and ballooning national debt , now over 120% of GDP . Meanwhile, money market fund balances are climbing — a signal that institutional and retail investors alike are parking cash on the sidelines. These short-term investment vehicles offer safety and a yield that closely tracks the Fed Funds Rate. In other words, investors would rather earn 5% in cash than take risk in longer-duration assets, treasuries, or swinging equities. These trends are further complicated by geopolitical uncertainty. Ongoing wars, potential tariff escalations , and questions around U.S. fiscal leadership all introduce headline risk. Should unemployment rise , or growth falter , the Fed may face pressure to intervene — but its tools are limited. Cutting rates could re-ignite inflation. Raising taxes or cutting spending is politically unpopular. The Fed is cornered, managing debt service costs, inflation expectations, and political realities simultaneously. For CRE investors, this creates both risk and opportunity. Real estate pricing is driven by capital flows, leverage, and the cost of debt . When long-term Treasury rates rise , the “risk-free rate” increases — and with it, lenders widen their spreads to reflect perceived risk. Even when treasuries fall, spreads going higher can keep all-in interest rates higher. Spreads are higher for construction loans, transitional assets, and tertiary market, reflecting in lower asset prices. The net effect is simple: lower loan proceeds and higher cost of capital . As a result, buyers must lower offers to meet equity return thresholds . We are already seeing this play out in real time. In markets where price discovery is finally happening , bids are falling, and assets are being marked to market — especially those with near-term debt maturities. Until this repricing completes and stability returns, we believe it is wise to lean into debt rather than chase speculative equity returns. Debt Offers Strategic Advantages Right Now: Senior positioning in the capital stack offers downside protection Current yields are attractive , often exceeding return thresholds without relying on appreciation Shorter durations allow us to stay nimble as the market evolves And we can structure loans with sponsor-friendly terms , aligning ourselves with developers who need flexible capital during this transition period At Alpha Equity Group, we’re also putting our own capital to work on the equity side of the deals we know best — infill residential development. But we are doing so carefully, underwriting with stress-tested assumptions, and leaning on our operational expertise. As we’ve seen in prior cycles, market dislocation creates fertile ground for investors . With uncertainty around every corner, we see this moment not as a challenge, but as an opening — a window to preserve capital, generate yield, and position for long-term outperformance once growth does come back. What to Watch: The yield curve : steepening curves may signal higher inflation and longer-term rate risk U.S. bond auctions : demand strength, especially from foreign investors, impacts long-term borrowing rates. The US is expected to start buying treasuries and bonds again in 2026, increasing its balance sheet again after rounds of tightening alongside the recent rate hike cycle. Credit spreads : widening spreads reflect rising risk aversion and lender caution Geopolitical escalation : new conflicts or trade wars can drive capital away from U.S. assets and toward gold or other alternatives Fiscal response : keep an eye on Trump-era tax reform 2.0, tariffs, or large-scale spending plans heading into the election cycle. This can affect bets on future inflation, bonds, capital availability, and CRE prices. In short, we are in a time of reordering — politically, economically, and monetarily. Investors who embrace this shift and position accordingly will be well-rewarded. We’re not just investing in the market we have — we’re preparing for the one that’s coming. That’s why we’re taking a conservative credit-first approach , with upside optionality where it makes sense, and defense where it matters most.
Multifamily Housing and Risk-Adjusted Returns
Events
Our team had an incredible time hosting the Coker Creek launch party, showcasing our latest development in Pelzer with 12 stunning home sites on 5-7 acre parcels. We had over 100 attendees and created memories that will last a lifetime. It was an honor to partner with SC-QRF: South Carolina Quick Response Force, a local non-profit supporting the SEAL Future Foundation, which is dedicated to SEAL transition and wellness. The event featured delicious BBQ, great music, raffles, unique vehicle rollover experiences, and much more. Special thanks to @treyduncansings for the music! A highlight of the evening was the auctioning of one of Ronnie Coker’s (former owner) cows and an inspiring word from the mayor of Pelzer.
FAQ
How do I get in touch with your team to discuss investing or if I have questions?
You can reach us in a few different ways:
- Email: invest@alphaequityre.com
- Submit a Form: navigate to our home page and click "Get Started"
- Book a Call: navigate to our home page and click "Book a Call"
Are returns guaranteed?
No returns are guaranteed and investors must be comfortable with the inherent risks associated with real estate investing. Stated projections are unlikely to come true in reality. Please head over to our resources section of our site to learn more about various investment risks.
How many offerings do you have per year?
Offerings can vary but broadly speaking, Alpha Equity may have anywhere from 2-4 equity investment opportunities per year. On the other hand, the Catalyst Strategic Credit Fund is a perpetual, evergreen debt offering. Please reach out to us to learn more about the current opportunities available.
What is your typical minimum investment?
The minimum investments for our offerings range from $50,000 to $100,000
Can I liquidate my investment whenever I want or do I have to wait?
Most investments offered are illiquid, and investors must hold their investment for the period specified in each offering. Catalyst Fund investors may request to liquidate their investments after a 12-month lock-up period, subject to the Manager’s discretion and other constraints specified in the offering’s PPM.
Can I invest if I am unaccredited?
Many of our offerings are for accredited investors only, however, we do have offerings open to unaccredited investors from time to time. Please schedule a call with us so we can better understand your goals.
How do I know if I am accredited?
Generally, you have to meet the following criteria to be considered accredited:
Have an individual net worth, or joint net worth with their spouse or spousal equivalent, that exceeds $1 million (excluding the value of your primary residence)
- Have individual income exceeding $200,000 in each of the past two financial years and a reasonable expectation of satisfying this requirement in the current year
- Have combined income with their spouse exceeding $300,000 in each of the past two financial years and a reasonable expectation of satisfying this requirement in the current year; or
- Hold a Series 7, Series 82 or Series 65 financial services license.
Is accreditation verification required to invest in your offerings?
Many of our offerings, including the Catalyst Strategic Credit Fund, fall within the SEC rule referred to as 506(c). In these cases, the rule requires that Alpha Equity verifies the accreditation status of investors. We can provide a letter that your CPA, attorney, or financial advisor can sign off on or alternatively, you can go to verifyinvestor.com and provide us with their verification documentation. Once an investor is verified, they will not need to re-verify themselves for a period of 5 years.
Once I invest, how do I track updates and the status of my investment?
Investors who have subscribed to one of our offerings will gain access to a private portal under Juniper Square, our investor management software. In your portal, you will be able to track your investment distributions, view reports, tax forms, and more. Once you invest with us once you will not have to make another account. All of your investments, as well as other open offerings, will live in your portal.
Do you charge fees in your offerings?
Yes. Our fees vary from offering to offering. Please refer to an offering's PPM for a full understanding of all fees associated with a particular investment.
