Tariffs on CRE


Impact of Tariffs on CRE


As you may already be aware, the Trump administration has implemented punitive tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China, sparking significant turmoil in the market as investors try to assess the potential future impact. Fear has entered the marketplace, and fear often leads to market disruptions and market selloffs. In response to the shifting policy, the stock market lost over $5 trillion in just 3 weeks, eroding 10% off its new record high. Tariffs with these major trading partners affect our trade volume, inflation, economic growth, and ultimately, bond yields as investors demand a premium over inflation to earn a real return. Since government spending is an input of GDP, inflation and growth are closely connected. The introduction of new, potentially temporary tariff policies will send ripple effects through the market, resulting in ongoing volatility and a pessimistic outlook. Consequently, investors are becoming more cautious, suppressing trade activity. While it's clear that the stock market needed a correction—given that many stocks were trading at unsustainable highs—the question remains: How will commercial real estate (CRE) be impacted?


Let’s break this down. As mentioned, investors demand a premium over inflation, with spreads reflecting acceptable rates of return for specific risk positions, be it equity or debt. Commercial real estate is priced by considering the weighted average cost of debt and the weighted average cost of equity, based on the proportion of equity and debt in the deal. To illustrate this, let’s take the example of $1. A portion of each dollar of net operating income from an asset goes toward paying debt holders first, followed by equity holders. If the total debt and equity annual obligations exceed the net income on an annual basis, someone isn’t receiving what they’re owed, simply because there is not enough income to pay the various capital partners who funded the deal. Lenders set their rates by adding spreads to benchmark rates, such as treasury yields, which are directly tied to inflation expectations. As inflation expectations rise, interest rates also rise, driving up the cost of debt for CRE, while reducing the leverage available to deals. As more net operating income is allocated to cover higher debt costs, the remaining returns for equity holders become smaller. And as more equity is needed to cover the capital stack, returns fall even further. Ultimately, investors may be forced to lower pricing to meet their expected return requirements on their equity.


Tariffs have a direct impact on inflation by affecting transaction prices, volumes, revenue, and overall economic productivity. Essentially, tariffs are taxes on imported goods that we produce domestically. While they may serve various purposes, they are mainly used to generate revenue, protect local industries, and influence foreign trade and policy behavior. When used effectively, tariffs can boost revenue, but if applied poorly for too long, they can dampen demand and harm domestic economies by reducing welfare. The most significant negative consequence of tariffs is the high likelihood that they will backfire on U.S. consumers. Since manufacturers rely on importing raw materials to produce local goods, when these imported goods become more expensive due to tariffs, producers will pass on these cost increases to consumers, leading to higher domestic prices.


Without an idea as to when tariffs will end, and if they will change, it is hard to quantify the impact on CRE directly. But, in the short-term we can assume that it will spike inflation, volatility, and negatively impact market sentiment. Interim stagflation, or inflation in lieu of sufficient growth, could be on the horizon as well. Worries of a recession will cause longer term yields to drop, and if so, the cost of debt could decrease, which would help alleviate structural capital stack issues in the market. However, too large of a recession will stifle demand, and growth, which is a big risk as it could challenge absorption and net operating income.


Without knowing when tariffs will end or whether they will change, it’s difficult to directly quantify their impact on commercial real estate (CRE). However, we can reasonably expect them to drive up inflation, increase volatility, and negatively affect market sentiment. Concerns about a recession could lead to a drop in long-term yields, which, if it occurs, may reduce the cost of debt and help ease some of the structural issues in the capital stack. That said, a deep recession could dampen demand and slow growth, posing a significant risk by potentially hindering absorption rates and net operating income.

Building to Hold vs Building to Sell

By Christian O'Neal • July 31, 2025
Why Building and Holding Real Estate for the Long- Term Delivers Superior, Tax-Efficient Yield 

Rent Control - Does it Work?

By Christian O'Neal • July 31, 2025
Rent Control: A Well-Intentioned Policy That Misses the Mark In the debate over affordable housing, few policies stir as much emotion—or controversy—as rent control. Advocates see it as a way to shield tenants from rising rents. Critics argue it does more harm than good. When you examine the economic evidence and real- world outcomes, the conclusion becomes clear: rent control is a deeply flawed solution to a real problem. What Is Rent Control? Rent control is a policy that limits how much landlords can increase rent, either through caps tied to inflation or fixed annual percentages. On paper, it sounds compassionate: protect renters from displacement and make cities more affordable. But in practice, rent control reduces the supply of available housing, discourages new development, and often hurts the very people it's meant to help. Why Rent Control Backfires 1. It Discourages New Construction Developers are less likely to build in markets where future rent growth—and thus returns—are capped. Why take the risk of developing multifamily housing in a city where your upside is limited and your operating environment is politicized? 2. It Drives Property Owners Out of the Market Faced with strict rent regulations, landlords may convert rental units to condos or remove them from the market altogether. Fewer units mean more scarcity, which ultimately drives prices higher for everyone else. 3. It Distorts Housing Allocation Rent control encourages long-term tenants to stay in apartments they might otherwise outgrow or vacate. This locks up valuable housing stock and prevents more dynamic turnover, often freezing lower-cost units in place for higher-income tenants. 4. It Creates a Two-Tiered Market Markets with rent control often develop into two separate ecosystems: regulated apartments that are underpriced and hard to find, and unregulated units with inflated prices to compensate for suppressed supply. The California–New York Split: A Tale of Two Approaches Historically, California and New York have been peers in over-regulating rental housing. But recently, they’ve taken different paths: California's Recent Steps Forward:  Voters rejected rent control expansion (Prop 21 and earlier Prop 10)  Streamlined approvals and reduced CEQA abuse to promote new development New York's Recent Moves Backward:  Passed “Good Cause Eviction” law—effectively rent control in disguise  Political calls for rent freezes and demonization of landlords If you’re an open-minded apartment developer evaluating both markets today, California’s message is increasingly: We need you. New York’s? Not so much. To be fair, both are still difficult places to build housing, and cities like Los Angeles and Berkeley remain deeply anti-development. But California has shown progress by recognizing that you can’t claim to be pro-housing while simultaneously vilifying those who create and operate it. A Misalignment of Incentives A core problem with rent control is that it treats housing supply as fixed and ignores the private sector's role in expanding it. If developers and operators are stripped of potential upside—and burdened with unpredictable political risk—they simply stop building. Even well-intentioned pro-development plans (like NYC’s "City oare undermined when operators believe they’ll be punished after delivery through hostile regulation or public scorn. You can't be truly pro-development unless you're also pro-operator. Policies that foster collaboration, not scapegoating, create the conditions for long-term affordability. The Real Way Forward Instead of imposing artificial caps, cities should focus on increasing housing supply through zoning reform, expedited approvals, and public-private partnerships. The more units that come online, the more pricing power shifts away from landlords and toward tenants—naturally. Rent control is seductive in its simplicity but devastating in its consequences. It’s a policy that tries to solve a supply problem with demand-side restrictions—and in doing so, it often makes things worse. At Alpha Equity Group, we believe that smart, sustainable development is the key to housing affordability. And that requires sound economics, not political theater.

Into the Future – Making Sense of Rates in a World That Doesn’t

By Christian O'Neal • June 24, 2025
In the world of capital markets, clarity is often fleeting — and today, it feels downright elusive. The Federal Reserve’s latest June dot plot offered little in the way of certainty. While the median projection sees the Federal Funds Rate in the mid-3% range by the end of 2026 , the dispersion among voting members is striking. Seven members predict no rate cuts in 2024 , reflecting just how divided the committee remains in the face of conflicting data. This latest update marks a 25-50 basis point shift downward from May , but the overarching theme is one of caution, not conviction. That sentiment is mirrored in the economic projections. Core PCE inflation , the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is now expected to end 2025 at 3.0% , 30 basis points higher than earlier forecasts. Meanwhile, real GDP is forecast to slow from 2.3% in Q4 2024 to just 1.7% in 2025 — another sign that the lagged effects of monetary policy are expected to begin to show. At the same time, the Fed’s balance sheet has shrunk dramatically, from a peak of $9 trillion in April 2022 to just $2.3 trillion today . That quantitative tightening, coupled with a lack of consistent inflation suppression, leaves both equity and bond markets vulnerable to further volatility. This all feeds into an uncomfortable truth: rates are likely to remain higher for longer , and the market is struggling to price that reality. The VIX index , a 30-day forward-looking gauge of volatility in equities, is trending higher. When volatility rises even as indices fall, credit spreads widen , liquidity tightens, and financing risk surges. For commercial real estate investors , this has enormous implications. As we explored in our recent article on CRE Price Discovery , the market remains in flux. The bid-ask spread in real estate is still somewhat wide, and most transaction activity today is being driven by maturing debt — not opportunistic investments banking on future growth. This means valuations are being forced downward, especially for assets that were purchased or refinanced at ultra-low rates in 2021–2022. Consumer behavior is also in transition. Household formation is slowing, and personal savings rates are slowly ticking up although they are significantly down from longer term averages – which could reflect folks bracing for economic turbulence. U.S. household formation currently stands at 1.058 million, down 7.68% from last month’s 1.146 million and down 47.73% from 2.024 million a year ago. Looking globally, demand for U.S. Treasuries remains a critical economic indicator that has trickling effects on the economy . A strong bid-to-cover ratio — like the 2.67x seen at the June 11th 10-Year Treasury auction , with nearly 88% of bids from foreign banks — is encouraging. It suggests continued faith in U.S. fiscal credibility and currency strength despite market apprehensions in our strength, such as the US credit rating being downgraded by Moody’s. This equilibrium is rather fragile. Should the U.S. continue to run massive budget deficits with a debt-to-GDP ratio north of 120% , investors may begin to demand higher yields — or worse, seek refuge in alternative stores of value. Gold is one such store. The World Gold Council recently reported that 76% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings over the next five years , up from 69% in 2023. This flight to real assets reflects growing concern about the long-term value of fiat currencies — and a desire to hedge against systemic risk. The Bottom Line  Rates are likely to remain high through 2025 and into 2026 Inflation remains persistent but progress has been unclear Growth is slowing, and volatility is rising Real estate is repricing around debt maturity events Global capital is shifting cautiously, looking for safety At Alpha Equity Group, we believe this is a time for discipline, not risk-taking. We’re staying patient, watching the data, and investing defensively — focusing on secured debt positions and capital preservation. While others chase uncertain upside, we’re building long-term value through downside protection while we wait out the convergence of dozens of factors completely outside our control.
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